Speculation rife over Nitish Kumar jumping ship to NDA Key meetings in Delhi, Patna

NEW DELHI : The Opposition INDIA bloc appears to be unraveling with a third key leader – Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar – likely to change camp. Mr Kumar, in a last-minute U-turn, will partner with the BJP in the coming Lok Sabha elections, sources said.
A series of developments, such as Nitish’s meeting with the Bihar Governor, changing the portfolio of three RJD ministers, and emergency meetings of RJD chief Lalu and Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav with the Chief Minister, have prompted talks about the JD(U) jumping the Mahagathbandhan bandwagon. The Centre’s Bharat Ratna for former Bihar Chief Minister Karpoori Thakur appears to have been a turning point scripted in advance.
For Mr Kumar, 72, this would be the fifth change of camp. Since 2013, he has been swinging between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, all the while keeping his job in the state intact. He switched sides last in 2022, just three years after he had walked out of the Grand Alliance and joined the NDA. There is wide speculation about Nitish Kumar returning to the BJP-NDA fold before the 2024 election. This would mark another significant shift in the political landscape of Bihar with the Mahagatbandhan government allegedly on its last legs, emphasizing the precarious situation of the India Alliance in Bihar.
As the political crisis in Bihar escalates, top JDU leaders have met Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is contemplating severing ties with his ally Lalu Prasad and his party, the RJD. This rift has reportedly escalated after Lalu’s daughter publicly criticized Nitish. Yesterday, Mr Kumar’s lack of response to the Congress invitation for Bharat Jodo Yatra, put a question mark on his appearance and raised speculation about the unity of the Opposition front. Sources said Mr Kumar has been upset over the lack of clarity in INDIA bloc’s poll preparations and being passed over as a possible Prime Ministerial candidate. The delay in seat-sharing talks for the Lok Sabha polls had been a further aggravation.
The Mahagathbandhan allies, caught unawares, have been trying to pacify the irked Chief Minister. Sources said Lalu Yadav has already dialed Mr Kumar. His Rashtriya Janata Dal has called a meeting of its leaders in Patna. The Congress, too, is trying to get on the hotline to get Mr Kumar to join the Bharat Jodo Nyaya Yatra when it enters Bihar.
The build-up to the change of camp had started with Nitish Kumar sacking Lallan Singh and returning as the JDU chief. Sources indicated that Lallan Singh did not lobby enough and communicate Mr Kumar’s ambitions to the INDIA bloc members, which was why Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal had proposed Mallikarjun Kharge’s name for the top post. Nitish Kumar, appears likely to walk out. Sources said it is likely that Mr Kumar, in a last-minute U-turn, will partner the BJP in the coming Lok Sabha elections. Over the last two days, two key leaders Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal — have all but cut ties with INDIA bloc, ruling out any alliance with the Congress and saying they would go solo in Bengal and Punjab.
Mr Kumar who, sources said, may even share stage with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at his February 4 rally in Bettiah has called all his MLAs to Patna. Sources said he would resign first and then stake claim with the help of the BJP. After the new cabinet is formed, he would recommend dissolution of the present House and seek new mandate.
At present, the Grand Alliance has 160 MLAs, including JD(U)’s 45, in a House of 243 while the Opposition has 83. With the halfway mark at 122, the RJD with 79 MLAs would need just seven more MLAs along with allies Congress and Left parties to parties to cross the majority mark.
The majority mark in the 243-member Bihar assembly is 122. The RJD has 79 seats. Mr Kumar can form government with 82 seats of the BJP and 45 of his Janata Dal United. Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal has 79 seats.Sources said even though state BJP leaders are skeptical about Nitish Kumar’s return, top leadership of the party has made up its mind and issued a gag order for the state unit. State leaders have been categorically told not to badmouth the Chief Minister, sources said.
Meanwhile, State BJP chief Samrat Chaudhary has been called to Delhi. He and senior Bihar leader Sushil Modi are likely to meet party chief JP Nadda and Union Home Minister and the BJP’s chief strategist Amit Shah this evening.
The signs have all been there over the last weeks, with the Chief Minister’s sharp comments on dynastic politics and the subsequent retort from Lalu Yadav’s daughter on social media, despite later deletion, expanding the rift. Mr Kumar’s comments were seen as a snub to ally Lalu Yadav and his son Tejashwi Yadav, even though the Chief Minister’s Party, the Janata Dal United, denied it today.
(Bureau Report with Inputs from Patna)