NEW DELHI : Contrary to the exit polls of Maharashtra, there was a tough competition between the Mahayuti and the Uddhav-Sharad-led MVA on the ground, but the exit polls are showing a different picture.
Soon after the conclusion of one phase of polling in the state on Wednesday evening, five out of nine exit polls indicated that the ruling Mahayuti would be in majority in 2024 Maharashtra.
All eight gave the alliance an average of 150 (eight more than the majority) seats out of the 288 assembly seats, while the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi was given only 125 and non-alliance parties and independents 13 seats. However, the Dainik Bhaskar exit poll has given 125-140 seats to the Mahayuti and 135-150 seats to the MVA. Both P-Mark and Dainik Bhaskar can be read as giving a slight lead to Mahayuti and MVA, which can give both the parties more than 145 seats, but the difference is very less.

In the survey of Axis My India, India alliance is seen forming the government in Jharkhand. Here India alliance is seen getting 53 seats, BJP alliance 25 and 3 seats in the account of others. 41 seats are needed for majority in the 81-member Legislative Assembly of Jharkhand. According to the Chanakya Exit Poll, the BJP alliance is projected to get 45-50 seats in the state. While the Congress JMM alliance is projected to get 35-38 seats.
Three exit polls regarding Maharashtra have predicted a hung assembly. They believe that no alliance will be able to gain clearly enough to form the next government, at least bargaining and manipulation are most likely. All political parties are eyeing the MLAs elected as independents. The ninth has completely reversed this trend, giving a landslide victory to the MVA. However, after the humiliating Haryana assembly elections, survey agencies have been cautious this time around. 5 exit polls predict BJP alliance victory.
According to the Matriz, Chanakya Strategies, Times Now-JVC, Poll Diary and People’s Pulse exit polls, the Mahayuti – Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena-Nationalist Congress Party – will get 122-195 seats.Matriz has projected 150 to 170 seats for the Mahayuti, People’s Pulse 175 to 195 seats, Chanakya Strategies 152 to 160 seats and Times Now-JVC 150-167 seats. Poll Diary is the least certain of the five, predicting 122 to 186 seats, with an average of 152. According to these five exit polls, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi – the Congress and Shiv Sena and the Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar factions of the NCP – will get only 69 to 138 seats.
According to the polls, the MVA will get 107-125 seats according to Times Now-JVC, 110-130 according to Matriz and 130-138 according to Chanakya Strategies. The harshest forecasts are from People’s Pulse, which gives it only 85-112 seats, and Poll Diary, which offers only 69 to 121 seats. P-Mark expects the Mahayuti to get 137 to 157 seats and the MVA 126 to 146 seats, while Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra feels the BJP alliance will get 128-142 and the MVA 125-140 seats.
On the other hand, Electoral Edge says that the Maha Vikas Aghadi will return to power with 150 seats and restrict its rival alliance to just 118 seats. Non-aligned parties and independent candidates, who could play a key role in case of a hung assembly. This group has been given an average score of 12 seats. It could emerge as the ‘king-maker’.
Poll Diary and Times Now-JVC put it at 10-27 and 13-14, while Electoral Edge has given a flat score of 20. However, Matriz, P-Mark and People’s Pulse have gone the other way and suggested that the non-aligned parties may not really be a factor. P-Mark has given them two to eight seats, while Matriz has given eight to 10 and People’s Pulse has given seven to 12 seats.
The 2019 Maharashtra election saw a landslide victory for the BJP and the (then undivided) Shiv Sena; The saffron party won 105 seats (17 less than 2014) and its allies 56 (seven less). However, the two long-time allies parted ways in a pretty dramatic fashion in the following days, after failing to agree on a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then joined his forces in a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (then undivided) to oust the rampaging BJP. To the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the different political beliefs and ideologies of the Shiv Sena and the Congress-NCP.
Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde that ousted the MVA government. Mr Shinde pushed Shiv Sena MLAs to strike a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and allow himself to be named as the new chief minister. Since then, Maharashtra politics has been mired in controversies, which spilled over to the Supreme Court.

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