India’s corona-Covid-19 cases doubling in seven days

HospitalNEW DELHI : Madhya Pradesh has emerged as one of the current hotspots for COVID-19 cases in India as the State reported 20 deaths in 24 hours, bringing the total death toll in the country above 470. Worldwide, over 20 lakh cases have been reported and the overall death toll is nearly 1,40,000.
As India continues to work against the corona virus COVID-19 on war-footing, the number of positive cases on Friday reached 13,835, with 1076 new cases in the last 24 hours. Even after the stringent lockdown declared by Prime Minister ,India has seen a steady rise in the number of cases has dropped to 6.2 days over the past week, as compared to three days before the lockdown was imposed last month, the government said today, adding that there had been a 40 per cent decline in the growth of new cases.
India’s case count is now roughly double what it was seven days ago. This is a slower rate compared to a few days ago, when cases were doubling every four days. At this trajectory, the number of cases could rise to 20,000 over the next eight days. If the same trajectory continues beyond that period,  India’s hospitals could get overwhelmed in the next few months.
The decline is the result of increased testing, including that of patients suffering from SARI (severe acute respiratory illness) and ILI (influenza-like illness), the government added. Though the number of cases has been rising, an analysis shows that the rate of doubling of the cases is currently taking place within a span of seven days instead of the earlier period of three days. Before the lockdown, India’s doubling rate was about three days and for the past seven days, the doubling rate is 6.2 days.
On April 10, there was a rise of 896 new cases taking the total number to 6,761; April 11 witnessed a rise of 768 cases with the total number reaching 7,529; April 12 saw an increase of 918 cases taking the total number to 8447; April 13 witnessed a rise of 905 cases with the total number reaching 9352; April 14 saw an increase of 1,463 cases taking the total number to 10,815.
The Union Health Ministry on Friday also asserted that the lockdown in India has reduced the doubling rate of COVID-19 cases. Lav Agarwal  said that before lockdown the doubling rate of cases was three days and for the last 7 days the doubling rate has been 6.2 days. He also added that in 19 states and UTs, the doubling rate is less than the national average. The average growth factor of cases has been 1.2 from April 1, while during March 15-31, the average growth factor was 2.1.
He  also said the rate – the days it takes for the number of novel coronavirus cases to double – in 19 states and union territories was even lower than the national average. These include Kerala (which made the case for an extended isolation period) Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and UP, which are among the worst-hit states in the country.
ICMR scientist Dr Raman R Gangakhedkar hit back, pointing out that countries with higher testing rates had significantly smaller population sizes and India was, at present, conducting 24 tests from which one returned positive.
(With Agency Inputs ).


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